Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
